The Past Week & The Week Ahead (1/9-21)

This past week was an overall good week with plenty of opportunities, although it did not appear to be the case on Monday & Tuesday where plenty of traders wished they stayed on the sidelines.  China decided to mix things up at weeks end.  After doing weekend analysis, it appears Monday & Tuesday will be key days on the direction of the FX market.

I am going to start this week with the US Dollar Index, which was not included last week.

US Dollar Index

Monday & Tuesday will be key times for the US Dollar Index.  I am neutral on it until I see further price action.  I could continue be non-trending between 81.50/79 or it could give another reason to be a bear on the dollar.

  • It has been respecting the key 79 level.  A break below will send it to 78.62 support, then 78, then 77.
  • 79 level is also 38.2 retracement of the 74.85 low/87.67 high.
US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index


I was telling people I was bullish mid-way through the week.  As I examine the daily chart at the moment, I am neutral & want to see what it does Monday/Tuesday.  Could we be in a non-trending market between 1.3000 (which has turned into a key level) & 1.3400, 400 pip spread, or will there be a breakout?

  • It hit the 38.2 fib level of the 1.4277 high/1.2853 low at 1.3397.
  • It hit the 50 fib level of 1.3418 of the 1.4277 high/1.2559 low.
  • No notable or clear trendlines to identify.
  • If breakout occurs, 1.3941 on the upside, 1.2559 on the downside are the next targets.
Euro / US Dollar

Euro / US Dollar


The Pound is funky, but then again, what else is new. Just like the Euro, I need to see Monday & Tuesday action.  It is a hair away from 2 key resistance points. If it breaks, bull.  If it does not, then consolidation or bear.

  • It broke an upper trendline that started in November 2010.
  • 1.5900 has proven to be a key resistance level, 30 pips away from Friday’s close.
  • 61.8 fib level at 1.5932 is retracement of the 1.6292 to 1.5350 downtrend.
British Pound / US Dollar

British Pound / US Dollar


Last week I said I am a bull & I am still a bull inside.  Finding technical reasons to be a bull are becoming tough though, same goes with being a bear.  It chopped around this past week, providing no real clear indication of it continuing or if it will go one way or another.  Fundamentals has played a factor in this pair, along with the price of gold.

  • I pointed out a trendline last week that it was respecting.  It has been whipsawing in & out of it most of this week, thus the reason I am disregarding it.
  • Touched the 61.8 of the retracement of the uptrend from 0.9528 low to 1.0255 high.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Australian Dollar / US Dollar


There are signs of short term bullishness, but sticking to my neutral position.  This is also the only pair I did not redraw indicators.

  • This past week formed a bull flag, like it up to 85.74/90 (85.74 61.8 fib level retracement of downtrend of 89.15 high/80.22 low & 100 fib level of retracement of 85.90 high/80.20 low).
  • Been respecting the fibs, hit 38.2 fib level of the 89.15 high/80.22 low & bounced off 38.2 fib level of 85.90 high/80.20 low.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Economic outlook:  Not much changed this past week on the economic front.  UK housing prices are continuing to decline.  Inflation fears in the US, UK & Europe have been reenforced.  Inflation worries can spread fear of higher interest rates thus a stronger currency.  China raised there banks requirements Friday.  Banks will be able to loan less, so companies will have less money to buy products & expand.  Since China has been expanding & developing rapidly, it will be expected to slow.  Australia exports a lot of natural resources to China, so the Aussie got hit.  China is scheduled to release a lot of numbers Wednesday night/Thursday morning (depending on your time zone), that will assist on providing a direction.

This Week’s Major Economic Numbers (all times EST):

  • Monday: US Bank Holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day)
  • Tuesday: 4:30 AM UK CPI
  • Tuesday: 5:00 AM German Economic Sentiment
  • Tuesday: 9:00 AM Canada Interest Rate (Policy Report & Press Conference Wednesday  10:30/11:15 respectfully)
  • Wednesday: 4:30 AM UK Claimant Count Change
  • Wednesday: 9:00 PM China CPI/GDP/PPI/Retail Sales
  • Thursday: 8:30 US Unemployment Claims
  • Thursday: 10:00 US Existing Home Sales & Philly Fed Manufacturing
  • Friday: 4:00 AM EuroZone German Business Climate
  • Friday: 4:30 AM UK Retail Sales
  • Friday: 8:30 AM Canada Core Retail Sales

About Clair Wyant

I am a foreign exchange & stock/ETF trader in Boston, MA. This blog will be dedicated to my out look in the economy, the financial markets, with an emphasis in foreign exchange. When I am not working, I enjoy watching sports, participating in recreational sports leagues, travel & spend good times with my friends.
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