It’s a new year & I told myself I am going to change some things in my life. The list is to be kept private except for the fact I want to blog more. So, welcome to my premiere 2011 post as I take a look at technicals in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY on a daily basis.
This pair is clearly in a free fall.
- It consolidated between the 38.2 & 50.0 fib levels.
- Headed to the 61.8 (1.2777), but I will be looking for a retracement to at least the 50.0 fib level, as it has dropped by more then 5 handles the past week with no day closing in the positive.
This is the pair that just wants to keep on going up, but there are clearly forces dragging it down.
- Consolidating at the 38.2 (I am aware the fibs are reversed) at a trendline, very healthy for further downside.
- Price action past 2 weeks show another bear flag (2 minor ones & currently in 2nd big one).
- Both elements show another move to the downside.
- Only bullish factor is it is still above the trendline, which will be have break below to the 50.0 fib level confirm further bearishness.
This has bull written all over it.
- Been respecting lower trendline, as it bounced every time (4 times) it touched/almost touched.
- Bounced the 50.0 fib level (1.0249/0.9538) at 0.9894.
- Bounced off 23.6 fib level (1.0249/0.8772) at 0.9900 (I know, fibs reversed… again!).
There are signs of bearishness, but I am neutral (analysis is tough).
- This could continue to go on a sideways move between 80/84 (yes, 400 pips).
- It made a big move down from 95 to 80.20.
- Price action past 2 months is retracement (hit 50 fib at 84.68 of 89.15/80.20 & hair short of 78.6 of 85.90/80.20).
- Retracement could be viewed as consolidation of bigger move down.
- Bear flag from 80.20/84.56 was unconfirmed with move between 82.38/84.55.
Yes, this is a mess, thus I do not trade it & keeping neutral stance. It is still something to keep an eye on.
Economic outlook: Inflation is still a worry in the UK & Europe, and is growing into more of a worry in the US. People are spending money more then a year ago, but unemployment is still high in the US, UK & parts of the Eurozone. Germany is holding up the Eurozone economy, but things are still rough in Greece (not as bad as it once was) & Ireland. Spain, Portugal & Belgium are getting closer to headline news by the week. Australia is still doing very well (the best out of all the major developed countries) & still holds the highest interest rate out of all the major developed countries. A bubble in China & and signs of a slowdown could haunt the strong currency.
This Week’s Major Economic Numbers (all times EST):
- Sunday: 7:30 PM Australia Retail Sales
- Sunday: (Time TBD) China Trade Balance
- Monday: 3:00 PM UK Halifax HPI
- Monday 7:30 PM Australia Trade Balance
- Wednesday: 7:30 PM Australia Employment
- Thursday: 4:30 AM UK Manufacturing Production
- Thursday: 7:30 AM UK Interest Rate
- Thursday: 7:45 AM EuroZone Interest Rate (8:30 Press Conference)
- Thursday: 8:30 AM US PPI/Trade Balance/Unemployment Claims
- Thursday: 8:30 AM Canada Trade Balance
- Friday: 4:30 AM UK PPI
- Friday: 5:00 AM EuroZone CPI
- Friday: 8:30 AM US CPI/Retail Sales/CPI
- Friday: 9:15 AM US Industrial Production
- Friday: 9:55 AM US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment