The Past Week & the Week Ahead (1/2-14)


It’s a new year & I told myself I am going to change some things in my life.  The list is to be kept private except for the fact I want to blog more.  So, welcome to my premiere 2011 post as I take a look at technicals in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY on a daily basis.

EURUSD

This pair is clearly in a free fall.

  • It consolidated between the 38.2 & 50.0 fib levels.
  • Headed to the 61.8 (1.2777), but I will be looking for a retracement to at least the 50.0 fib level, as it has dropped by more then 5 handles the past week with no day closing in the positive.
Euro / US Dollar

Euro / US Dollar

GBPUSD

This is the pair that just wants to keep on going up, but there are clearly forces dragging it down.

  • Consolidating at the 38.2 (I am aware the fibs are reversed) at a trendline, very healthy for further downside.
  • Price action past 2 weeks show another bear flag (2 minor ones & currently in 2nd big one).
  • Both elements show another move to the downside.
  • Only bullish factor is it is still above the trendline, which will be have break below to the 50.0 fib level confirm further bearishness.
British Pound / US Dollar

British Pound / US Dollar

AUDUSD

This has bull written all over it.

  • Been respecting lower trendline, as it bounced every time (4 times) it touched/almost touched.
  • Bounced the 50.0 fib level (1.0249/0.9538) at 0.9894.
  • Bounced off 23.6 fib level (1.0249/0.8772) at 0.9900 (I know, fibs reversed… again!).
Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

USDJPY

There are signs of bearishness, but I am neutral (analysis is tough).

  • This could continue to go on a sideways move between 80/84 (yes, 400 pips).
  • It made a big move down from 95 to 80.20.
  • Price action past 2 months is retracement (hit 50 fib at 84.68 of 89.15/80.20 & hair short of 78.6 of 85.90/80.20).
  • Retracement could be viewed as consolidation of bigger move down.
  • Bear flag from 80.20/84.56 was unconfirmed with move between 82.38/84.55.

Yes, this is a mess, thus I do not trade it & keeping neutral stance. It is still something to keep an eye on.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Economic outlook:  Inflation is still a worry in the UK & Europe, and is growing into more of a worry in the US.  People are spending money more then a year ago, but unemployment is still high in the US, UK & parts of the Eurozone.  Germany is holding up the Eurozone economy, but things are still rough in Greece (not as bad as it once was) & Ireland.  Spain, Portugal & Belgium are getting closer to headline news by the week.  Australia is still doing very well (the best out of all the major developed countries) & still holds the highest interest rate out of all the major developed countries.  A bubble in China & and signs of a slowdown could haunt the strong currency.

This Week’s Major Economic Numbers (all times EST):

  • Sunday: 7:30 PM Australia Retail Sales
  • Sunday: (Time TBD) China Trade Balance
  • Monday: 3:00 PM UK Halifax HPI
  • Monday 7:30 PM Australia Trade Balance
  • Wednesday: 7:30 PM Australia Employment
  • Thursday: 4:30 AM UK Manufacturing Production
  • Thursday: 7:30 AM UK Interest Rate
  • Thursday: 7:45 AM EuroZone Interest Rate (8:30 Press Conference)
  • Thursday: 8:30 AM US PPI/Trade Balance/Unemployment Claims
  • Thursday: 8:30 AM Canada Trade Balance
  • Friday: 4:30 AM UK PPI
  • Friday: 5:00 AM EuroZone CPI
  • Friday: 8:30 AM US CPI/Retail Sales/CPI
  • Friday: 9:15 AM US Industrial Production
  • Friday: 9:55 AM US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Advertisements

About Clair Wyant

I am a foreign exchange & stock/ETF trader in Boston, MA. This blog will be dedicated to my out look in the economy, the financial markets, with an emphasis in foreign exchange. When I am not working, I enjoy watching sports, participating in recreational sports leagues, travel & spend good times with my friends.
This entry was posted in FX, The Past Week & The Week Ahead, US Dollar. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s