Predictions Review: How Did I Do?


I started this blog less then a month ago, to share my thoughts on the financial markets & possibly make some predictions.  Most traders & analysts (I am a trader) make predictions.  I made a few, but how successful (or unsuccessful) were they?

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US Dollar Index

What I Wrote: February 9, – “In the next couple of days, I would like to see some consolidation before making a further move up north.“

That’s exactly what occurred, there was consolidation before it went upward & still remaining in it’s up channel.

How I Traded It: As a forex trader for a firm (trade short term… few hours, not long term… few days weeks months), I did buy & sell the US Dollar, when warranted due to technicals at time of trade entry. Won some… lost some.

Where It Will Go From Here: It whipsawed through 81 support Friday.  38.2-61.8 is typically viewed as the area retracement before it’s continuation on its primary trend.  I can see it going between 50-61.8 retracement before it continues down its primary trend.  The next area to keep in mind is the 50 retracement at 81.93, then resistance at 82.70 then the 61.8 at 83.76.

Original Blog Posting: https://clairwyant.wordpress.com/2010/02/09/the-dollar-rally-per-dollar-index/

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Crude (XLE & the commodity)

What I Wrote: February 8 – “The technical moves in energy today can make an additional case that energy is in a bearish state… We have to wait till tomorrow to get confirmation for both of this move & verify it is not another whipsaw. As of now, I am bearish.”

Sure enough, it was a whipsaw & has gone up to 57.36 support.

How I Traded It:  I bought DUG at this time & I am selling it at a loss first thing Monday morning (the order is already in).  I held USO (when it was better correlated with crude) for 6 months 2 years ago, one of my best trades ever, for a very nice profit.  Unfortunately, my bet on the downside did not go as planned. ETFs is as far as I will go for commodities, for now.

The primary trend in crude has continued higher, even with 2-day whipsaw.

Where It Will Go From Here: I am holding off on making a call.  Regardless if it goes up or down, there is consolidation between 54-61.  Trade it if you want, too hard for me.  I am not touching it until I get a clearer signal.  I am ignoring the trendline (think it will factor more short term then long term), as it is clearly in consolidation.  Plan to short if falls below 54, long above 61.

Original Blog Posting: https://clairwyant.wordpress.com/2010/02/08/bearish-outlook-on-energy/

(Crude chart is from a different charting system on both entries)

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About Clair Wyant

I am a foreign exchange & stock/ETF trader in Boston, MA. This blog will be dedicated to my out look in the economy, the financial markets, with an emphasis in foreign exchange. When I am not working, I enjoy watching sports, participating in recreational sports leagues, travel & spend good times with my friends.
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